Search results for "probabilistic reasoning"

showing 8 items of 8 documents

Facilitating Effect of Natural Frequencies: Size Does Not Matter

2009

The question of whether humans are able to work in a Bayesian way is currently a topic of substantial investigation. An important finding, reported by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage in 1995 is that Bayesian reasoning is facilitated when the information format corresponds to natural frequencies. The present concern was whether the facilitating effect of frequencies persists when natural frequencies relate to samples which are not convenient multiples of 10. 150 undergraduates participated as volunteers (42 men, 108 women; M age = 23 yr.). Analysis showed the effect of natural frequency formats was not dependent on size of reference class. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

AdultMaleComputer scienceConcept FormationDecision MakingStatistics as TopicBayesian probabilityBayesian reasoningExperimental and Cognitive PsychologyProbabilistic reasoningBayesian inferenceSampling StudiesJudgmentHumansNatural (music)Reference classPractical implicationsMultipleModels StatisticalBayes TheoremSensory SystemsNatural frequencies formatFemaleSocial psychologyAlgorithmsMathematicsCognitive psychologyPerceptual and Motor Skills
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Managing conversation uncertainty in TutorJ

2009

Uncertainty in natural language dialogue is often treated through stochastic models. Some of the authors already presented TutorJ mat is an Intelligent Tutoring System, whose interaction with the user is very intensive, and makes use of both dialogic and graphical modality. When managing the interaction, the system needs to cope with uncertainty due to the understanding of the user's needs and wishes. In this paper we present the extended version of TutorJ, focusing on the new features added to its chatbot module. These features allow to merge deterministic and probabilistic reasoning in dialogue management, and in writing the rules of the system's procedural memory.

Dialogue managementNatural language dialogueExtended versionIntelligent tutoring systemProbabilistic reasoning
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Generalized Logical Operations among Conditional Events

2018

We generalize, by a progressive procedure, the notions of conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events to the case of n conditional events. In our coherence-based approach, conjunctions and disjunctions are suitable conditional random quantities. We define the notion of negation, by verifying De Morgan’s Laws. We also show that conjunction and disjunction satisfy the associative and commutative properties, and a monotonicity property. Then, we give some results on coherence of prevision assessments for some families of compounded conditionals; in particular we examine the Frechet-Hoeffding bounds. Moreover, we study the reverse probabilistic inference from the conjunction $\mathcal…

FOS: Computer and information sciencesSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaComputer Science - Artificial IntelligenceComputer scienceMonotonic functionProbabilistic reasoning02 engineering and technologyCommutative Algebra (math.AC)Conditional random quantitieFréchet-Hoeffding boundCoherent extensionNegationArtificial IntelligenceQuasi conjunction0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringFOS: MathematicsCoherent prevision assessmentConditional eventNon-monotonic logicRule of inferenceCommutative propertyAssociative propertyDiscrete mathematicsProbability (math.PR)Probabilistic logicOrder (ring theory)ConjunctionMathematics - LogicCoherence (philosophical gambling strategy)p-entailmentProbabilistic inferenceMathematics - Commutative AlgebraConjunction (grammar)Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)020201 artificial intelligence & image processingInference ruleNegationLogic (math.LO)Mathematics - ProbabilityDisjunction
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On the checking of g-coherence of conditional probability bounds

2003

We illustrate an approach to uncertain knowledge based on lower conditional probability bounds. We exploit the coherence principle of de Finetti and a related notion of generalized coherence (g-coherence), which is equivalent to the "avoiding uniform loss" property introduced by Walley for lower and upper probabilities. Based on the additive structure of random gains, we define suitable notions of non relevant gains and of basic sets of variables. Exploiting them, the linear systems in our algorithms can work with reduced sets of variables and/or constraints. In this paper, we illustrate the notions of non relevant gain and of basic set by examining several cases of imprecise assessments d…

Mathematical optimizationSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaPosterior probabilityConditional probability tablealgorithmslower conditional probability boundRegular conditional probabilityalgorithms; generalized coherence; linear systems; lower conditional probability bounds; probabilistic reasoning; reduced sets of variables and constraints.Artificial Intelligencelinear systemprobabilistic reasoninggeneralized coherenceMathematicsDiscrete mathematicsreduced sets of variables and constraintsalgorithmlinear systemsProbabilistic logicLaw of total probabilityConditional probabilityCoherence (philosophical gambling strategy)Conditional probability distributionControl and Systems Engineeringlower conditional probability boundsSoftwareInformation Systems
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Sensor9k : A testbed for designing and experimenting with WSN-based ambient intelligence applications

2012

Ambient Intelligence systems are typically characterized by the use of pervasive equipment for monitoring and modifying the environment according to users' needs, and to globally defined constraints. Our work describes the implementation of a testbed providing the hardware and software tools for the development and management of AmI applications based on wireless sensor and actuator networks, whose main goal is energy saving for global sustainability. A sample application is presented that addresses temperature control in a work environment, through a multi-objective fuzzy controller taking into account users' preferences and energy consumption.

Settore ING-INF/05 - Sistemi Di Elaborazione Delle InformazioniAmbient intelligenceComputer Networks and Communicationsbusiness.industryComputer scienceDistributed computingTestbedEnergy consumptionProbabilistic reasoningFuzzy logicComputer Science ApplicationsSoftwareEnergy efficiencyHardware and ArchitectureControl theoryEmbedded systemWireless sensor and actuator networkWirelessAmbient intelligencebusinessSoftwareInformation SystemsEfficient energy use
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Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Wireless Sensor Networks

2011

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are increasingly gaining popularity as a tool for environmental monitoring, however ensuring the reliability of their operation is not trivial, and faulty sensors are not uncommon; moreover, the deployment environment may influence the correct functioning of a sensor node, which might thus be mistakenly classified as damaged. In this paper we propose a probabilistic algorithm to detect a faulty node considering its sensed data, and the surrounding environmental conditions. The algorithm was tested with a real dataset acquired in a work environment, characterized by the presence of actuators that also affect the actual trend of the monitored physical quantities.

Settore ING-INF/05 - Sistemi Di Elaborazione Delle InformazioniKey distribution in wireless sensor networksBrooks–Iyengar algorithmComputer scienceNode (networking)Sensor nodeReal-time computingProbabilistic logicintelligent data analysis probabilistic reasoning wireless sensor networksAnomaly detectionWireless sensor network
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Logical Operations among Conditional Events: theoretical aspects and applications

2019

We generalize the notions of conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events to the case of $n$ conditional events. These notions are defined, in the setting of coherence, by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval $[0,1]$. We also define the notion of negation, by verifying De Morgan's Laws. Then, we give some results on coherence of prevision assessments for some families of compounded conditionals and we show that some well known properties which are satisfied by conjunctions and disjunctions of unconditional events are also satisfied by conjunctions and disjunction of conditional events. We also examine in detail the coherence of the prevision a…

Settore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaConditional events conditional random quantities conjunction disjunction negation coherent prevision assessments coherent extensions quasi conjunction probabilistic reasoning p-entailment inference rules iterated conditionals System P.
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Algorithms for coherence checking and propagation of conditional probability bounds

2001

In this paper, we propose some algorithms for the checking of generalized coherence (g-coherence) and for the extension of imprecise conditional probability assessments. Our concept of g-coherence is a generalization of de Finetti’s coherence principle and is equivalent to the ”avoiding uniform loss” property for lower and upper probabilities (a la Walley). By our algorithms we can check the g-coherence of a given imprecise assessment and we can correct it in order to obtain the associated coherent assessment (in the sense of Walley and Williams). Exploiting some properties of the random gain we show how, in the linear systems involved in our algorithms, we can work with a reduced set of va…

reduced sets of variables and constraintsSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaUncertain knowledgeUncertain knowledge probabilistic reasoning under coherence imprecise conditional probability assessments g-coherence checking g-coherent extension algorithms computational aspects reduced sets of variables reduced sets of linear constraints.g-coherent extensionimprecise conditional probability assessmentsg-coherence checkingUncertain knowledge; probabilistic reasoning under coherence; imprecise conditional probability assessments; g-coherence checking; g-coherent extension; algorithms.; computational aspects; reduced sets of variables and constraints.algorithmsprobabilistic reasoning under coherencecomputational aspects
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